Links to the Breadcrumb trail
- world
- News
Critics at the top of the government say the invasion is a catastrophic mistake that will take the country back years
Author of the article:
Publication date:
April 20, 2022 • 2 hours ago • 5 minutes reading • 177 comments Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a meeting on the board of Russia – the land of opportunity in the Kremlin’s Catherine Hall in Moscow on April 20, 2022. Photo by Mikhail Tereshchenko / Sputnik
Content of the article
Nearly eight weeks after Vladimir Putin sent troops to Ukraine, military losses are rising and Russia is facing unprecedented international isolation, a small but growing number of Kremlin senior officials are quietly questioning his decision to go to war.
Advertising 2
This ad is not yet loaded, but your article continues below.
Content of the article
The ranks of critics at the top remain limited to high positions in government and state business. They believe the invasion was a catastrophic mistake that will take the country back years, according to ten people with direct knowledge of the situation. Everyone spoke on condition of anonymity, too afraid of retribution to comment publicly.
So far, these people do not see a chance for the Russian president to change course and there is no prospect of challenging him at home. More and more relying on a narrowing circle of hardliners, Putin has rejected attempts by other officials to warn him of the crippling economic and political cost, they said.
Some said they increasingly share fears expressed by US intelligence officials that Putin could turn to limited use of nuclear weapons if he faces failure in a campaign he sees as his historic mission.
Advertising 3
This ad is not yet loaded, but your article continues below.
Content of the article
Of course, support for Putin’s war remains deep among much of Russia’s elite, with many insiders publicly and privately telling the Kremlin that conflict with the West is inevitable and that the economy will adapt to broad US and US sanctions. allies. And public support remains strong, as the initial shock and the suspension of sanctions have given way to a kind of surreal stability in Russia.
However, more and more senior officials believe that Putin’s commitment to continue the invasion will doom Russia to years of isolation and heightened tensions, crippling its economy, compromising its security and eradicating its global influence. Several business tycoons have made veiled statements questioning the Kremlin’s strategy, but many powerful players fear too much growing repression against dissent to express their concerns publicly.
Advertising 4
This ad is not yet loaded, but your article continues below.
Content of the article
Russian President Vladimir Putin at the center attends a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, left, and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Saturday, February 2, 2019. Photo: Alexei Nikolsky, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo / AP
Skeptics were surprised by the speed and breadth of the response from the United States and its allies, with sanctions freezing half of the central bank’s $ 640 billion reserves and foreign companies abandoning decades of investment to halt operations overnight. , as well as the steady expansion of military support for Kyiv, which is helping its forces to blunt Russia’s advance.
Senior officials have tried to explain to the president that the economic impact of the sanctions would be devastating, erasing the two decades of growth and higher living standards that Putin had secured during his rule, according to people familiar with the situation.
Putin rejected the warnings, saying that while Russia was paying a heavy price, the West had left him no alternative but to wage war, people said. Publicly, Putin says the “economic blitzkrieg” has failed and the economy will adapt.
Advertising 5
This ad is not yet loaded, but your article continues below.
Content of the article
The president remains confident that society stands behind him, and the Russians are ready to sacrifice years for his vision of national greatness, they said. With tight capital controls, the ruble has recovered most of its initial losses, and although inflation has risen, economic downturns have remained relatively limited so far.
Putin is determined to continue the battle, even if the Kremlin had to reduce its ambitions from a quick, widespread conquest of much of the country to a grueling battle for the Donbass region to the east. According to this view, satisfying less would leave Russia hopelessly vulnerable and weak in the face of the threat posed by the United States and its allies.
In the weeks since the invasion began, Putin’s circle of advisers and contacts has narrowed even further than the limited group of hardliners he has regularly consulted with, according to two people. The invasion decision was made by Putin and only a handful of hawks, including Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov and Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia’s Security Council, said the people.
Advertising 6
This ad is not yet loaded, but your article continues below.
Content of the article
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the article. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov did not provide a direct answer to recurring questions about whether Russia could use nuclear weapons in Ukraine in an interview published Tuesday.
Critics see no sign that Putin is still ready to consider ending the invasion in light of the losses or to make the serious concessions needed to achieve a ceasefire. Given his total domination of the political system, alternative views are rooted only in private.
Limited information contributed to the Kremlin’s miscalculations in the early days of the offensive, relying on broader support among Ukrainian troops and officials, as well as faster military progress, people familiar with the matter said. The Russian leader also underestimated his Ukrainian counterpart, initially perceiving him as weak.
Advertising 7
This ad is not yet loaded, but your article continues below.
Content of the article
Roman Abramovich, the billionaire who helped mediate the failed peace talks so far, had to dissuade Putin from believing that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, a former comedian, would flee the country after the invasion began.
According to Andrei Soldatov, an expert on Russia’s security services, within the KGB’s main successor, the Federal Security Service, frustration with the failure of the invasion is growing. Others there expected the fighting to last no more than a few weeks, according to people familiar with the matter.
Only one senior official has so far broken up with the Kremlin over the invasion: Anatoly Chubais, the unpopular architect of the 1990s privatizations and the Kremlin’s envoy for climate change. He left the country and was removed from office.
Advertising 8
This ad is not yet loaded, but your article continues below.
Content of the article
People familiar with the situation said others who tried to leave, including central bank chief Elvira Nabiulina, were told they should stay to help deal with the economic consequences. Some lower-level officials have asked to be transferred to non-policy-making jobs, people said.
Senior officials have condemned those who left the country as “traitors”.
Among the business tycoons, many of whom saw yachts, real estate and other property held under sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies, some were critical of the war – albeit without mentioning Putin.
Metal tycoon Oleg Deripaska called the war “madness” in late March, saying it could have ended “three weeks ago through reasonable negotiations”. He warned that the fighting could continue for “several more years”.
Advertising 9
This ad is not yet loaded, but your article continues below.
Content of the article
Some elites have called for an even tougher line. After Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov defended a prominent TV presenter who left the country in the days after the invasion, a strong Chechen man, Ramzan Kadyrov, whose troops are fighting in Ukraine, accused him of lack of patriotism.
“Putin built his regime mainly on gaining public support, which gave him the means to control the elite,” said Tatiana Stanovaya of political adviser R.Politik. “There is no room for disagreement or discussion, everyone just needs to continue and carry out the president’s orders, and as long as Putin keeps the situation under control, people will follow him.
Share this article on your social network
Advertising
This ad is not yet loaded, but your article continues below.
NP Published
Sign up to receive daily top stories from the National Post, a division of Postmedia Network Inc.
By clicking on the register button, you agree to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. You can unsubscribe at any time by clicking the unsubscribe link at the bottom of our emails. Postmedia Network Inc. | 365 Bloor Street East, Toronto, Ontario, M4W 3L4 | 416-383-2300
Thank you for registering!
Email is welcome. If you don’t see it, please check your junk folder.
The next issue of NP Posted will be in your inbox soon.
There was a problem registering with you. Please, try again
…
Add Comment