So many things have to go right for us to win the playoffs.
What will the Maple Leafs need to defeat their demons and defeat the two-time defending champions?
Let’s take a closer look at what needs to be done correctly. The more the better.
Aston Matthews and Mitch Marner go for bananas
If Austin Matthews and Mitch Marner are the two best players in the series, obviously the chances of Leafs to continue ahead will be high.
Matthews and Marner put together a pretty good example of what this kind of domination looks like on April 4 in Tampa. That night, Matthews conceded three goals alongside Andrei Vassilevsky, two of which were scored by Marner.
Marner himself added a goal in an exquisite steal from Matthews.
If consistent Rocket winner Richard Trophy does this, Leafs will be hard to stop.
It didn’t seem to matter which line Lightning struck Matthews, Marner, and Michael Bunting that night. Braden Point. Anthony Sirelli. Leafs’ top line caused damage.
Of course, one sure rival for the duo in this series is missing tonight: Ryan McDonagh, one of the best stoppers in hockey.
“For me, he’s the best defender they have,” said Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe. “McDonough knows exactly what his job is. He is interfering and will be physical and will protect the network. “
Tampa will want McDonough and partner Eric Chernak to face Matthews and Marner as often as possible. McDonagh faced Matthews during a match in early November (Marner played John Tavares that night) and shut him down.
Expected goals were 16 percent for Leafs in the 11 minutes in which Matthews was on the ice with McDonough – and 77 percent when he was not.
Things have changed a lot since then. On the one hand, Matthews has long undergone off-season wrist surgery, which still affected his game in November. Marner also became a monstrous goal scorer in the second half while still doing normal things for Marner.
(Kim Clement / USA Today)
Here’s the thing: Marner and Matthews were elite players last season when they faced Montreal. This time they are even better.
They impose more speed and turn these views into juicy offensive opportunities. They are even more in sync after another full season together.
“You can understand the way they move the puck when they leave the zone and the way they move it to the neutral zone,” Morgan Riley said of their chemistry at one point this season. “There are a lot of great lines that don’t really do that. They walk a lot on the ice. They use each other. They intersect one below the other. When they are confident and play well, it really affects every zone. ”
Dominate the minutes of Matthews-Marner and Leafs will be in good shape. This is the only line in which they have at least some advantage. And you can bet that Keefe will play with them even more than in the regular season.
With the advantage of home ice, Keefe may try to replace some shifts against McDonough with those against the less fearsome (though not physically) Zac Boghossian.
In all likelihood, the lack of Bunting to start the series makes the device a little difficult. His skill, energy, and instincts blended insultingly perfectly with Matthews and Marner. Alex Kerfut has not spent much time with any of the players, although he is smart and adaptable.
Matthews will certainly need a little more luck on his part than he had in previous playoffs. The 24-year-old scored 2.9 percent in seven games against the Habs last year, 7.4 percent against the Blue Jackets in 2020 and 3.7 percent two years earlier in another seven-game series against the Bruins.
The leaves win the war for power
Another development that could drive Leafs in the second round: Their strong game can really cook this time.
Take a second to recall how funky things were in the power game that was heading for last year’s playoffs. The Leafs joined this series in Montreal with one of the worst units in the league.
Now things are much different. This is the number one power in the league.
The top group is a shape-changing monster that is no longer predictable or depends entirely on one thing – ie. Matthew’s explosion. In fact, in the last 30 games of the season, William Nilander led the team with seven goals in the power game, followed by Matthews and John Tavares with four.
Leafs scored four times in 11 chances against the Bolts penalty, although one was in the OT and another came from Ilya Mikheyev during the recent 8-1 shooting.
Since Lightning themselves have a pretty bad game of power, which is especially hot in this series, winning the power war can be a deciding factor in this series.
Jack Campbell is equal to Andrei Vassilevsky (or quite close)
The Leafs have not won a goalkeeping match in any of their five consecutive playoff defeats.
They go to the one with, obviously, the second best person. Andrei Vassilevsky is as good as he gets, a 6-foot 3 and 225-pound rock star who dominated Tampa’s successive races for the Stanley Cup.
Jack Campbell does not have to be superior to this man. He has a violation in front of him, which may need only a nominal presentation. Just solid – not unlike the way Campbell played at the end of the field (7-0-2, with a save rate of 0.915 after returning from a rib injury and a reset at the end of the season).
Campbell just has to make the rescues he has to make.
(Dan Hamilton / USA today)
Minimize bad goals.
Campbell had those moments against the Habs last spring. Frederick Andersen did the same in the playoffs before. Cut them and keep it close to Vassilevski and a clear advantage of Lightning is distracted.
“I’m just trying to do the best I can,” Campbell said. “I have full faith in the boys in front of me. We all do our job and I have full faith that we can do the job.
Sheldon Keefe surpasses John Cooper
Keefe recently noted how different his third NHL playoff series will be from the two that preceded it.
№ 1: The Leafs will have fans at Scotiabank Arena this time after mostly empty buildings in 2020 and 2021. The advantage of home ice should mean a little more.
№ 2: The head coach has a staff he has chosen completely on the spot. Keeff succeeded Dave Haxtol and Paul McFarland from Mike Babcock when he took over in the middle of the 2019-20 season. He led Manny Malholtra and Paul McLean before their first full season. Dean Chinowet and Spencer Carbury have been added this season. These are his boys.
Keefe will face the gold standard of the league behind the bench right now in John Cooper. He is obviously not an easy opponent and has much more experience in the NHL playoffs.
Keef pressed a lot of the right buttons during the record-breaking regular season. Decision-making behind the bench becomes much busier in the playoffs. The error margin is getting thinner than ever. And during those first two playoff series, Keefe hesitated between doing too much and not enough.
Leafs’s coach had an extra briefing during the break, and after that his players had solid organization. Cassie has not played since mid-March due to a concussion. Sunday marked his first full training session.
The future line of Tavares, Kase and Mikheev did not spend zero time together, although both Kase and Mikheev played fair with Tavares.
Related: Keefe seems inclined to keep William Nilander in third place with Pierre Engval and David Kampf.
Designed game composition 1
LWCRW line
1
Foot on foot
Matthew
Marner
2
Михеев
Tavares
Case
3
Nylander
Kampf
Engvall
4
Clifford
Blackwell
Simmonds
Pairing
LD
RD
1
Riley
Любушкин
2
Muzzin
Brody
3
Giordano
Liljegren
GOALER
1
Campbell
He also plans to release Kyle Clifford and Wayne Simmonds on the fourth line, centered by Colin Blackwell. Of course, this is an attempt to compare Tampa’s physicality to what Keef expects to be a series of “borderline violence.”
Keefe will need to find out quickly whether Jake Musen can handle the tensions of trying to slow down Stephen Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov – and be ready to turn if he doesn’t. Other upcoming decisions could include whether to reunite Tavares and Nilander, whether to dress Timothy Lillegren and / or Ilya Lubushkin instead of Justin Hall, how to fit into this Tampa top line, and how to react if Matthews and Marner – or the team as a whole – are somehow blurred at the beginning of the series.
More often than not, choose correctly and the Cooper’s edge disappears.
The fourth row survives
Tampa has a legitimate fourth line, perhaps the best in the NHL.
Physical, energy, general boredom and the ability to put a few puck in the net. Corey Perry, Patrick Maroon and Pierre-Edouard Belemare combine to bring in a little of everything, including three goals in four games against the Leafs.
Hold this line until a draw in the match against the fourth line and Keefe will be pleased. Score a strange goal and gather meaningful energy to reverse the momentum from the bottom of the team and the Leafs coach will be thrilled.
Is Clifford and Simmonds playing Blackwell the answer? The Leafs were defeated (35 percent of expected goals) in their limited minutes together this season. Such a trio may be nasty, but it seems unlikely to do much offensive.
Simmonds has scored one goal and four points in his last 39 games. Clifford scored one goal and three points in his 23 games.
At some point, Jason Speza will get a chance. And in fact, the most effective of the various combinations of the fourth line down the section included Spezza, Blackwell and Clifford (59 percent).
(Kim Clement / USA Today)
This may seem like a very marginal part of the series. And in some ways it is. But if the Leafs can’t drop their fourth line from time to time and don’t see the ice tilt, Tampa gets a clear advantage.
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