Vladimir Putin attends meeting with Tver Oblast Governor Igor Rudenya in Moscow (Photo: Reuters)
Vladimir Putin’s top commanders would disregard an order to drop nuclear weapons against Ukraine or the West, according to a senior investigative journalist and expert on Russia.
Many leading military and security officials, as well as friends of oligarchs, believe the Russian president is dying or seriously ill, said Hristo Grozev, who is linked to the Bellingcat open source research group.
Fearing that he may not stay around for long, Putin’s inner circle will not risk being drawn to the modern equivalent of the Nuremberg trials.
Putin put the country’s nuclear forces on high alert shortly after the February 24 invasion of Ukraine.
As Western nations banded together to arm the Ukrainian army with means to repel the attack, the Kremlin leader made a series of subtle threats, hinting at his readiness to push the button.
Russia’s Defense Ministry has already revealed that the Victory Day parade on Red Square on Monday will feature the Il-80 Doomsday Command aircraft, which will carry higher powers in the event of a nuclear war.
In this scenario, the IL-80 is designed to become an air command center for the Russian president.
Asked in an online TV interview whether Putin’s health was in decline, Dmitry Gordon asked Mr Grozev: “We are watching [Putin] clutching the corner of the table spasmodically with his right hand during a meeting with [Defence Minister Sergei] Shoigu.
“And his jacket is too high and tight around his neck, his stumbling, his limping gait… Is he sick, or do we want him so sick?”
Putin was filmed grabbing the end of the table during a meeting with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (Photo: Kremlin.ru/East2West News)
Mr. Grozev replied: “I cannot speak without information, but we know that the oligarchs around him claim it.
“We also know that Lubyanka [FSB secret service] sent a letter about a month ago to all regional FSB chiefs.
“It said, ‘If you hear he has a very serious illness, we urge you not to pay attention.’
“So they all thought it meant the exact opposite.”
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Mr. Grozev continued: “So I don’t think it matters much whether he dies or is seriously ill, the important thing is that people around him think so.
“It changes the formula, it’s a factor that decides how loyal people should be to it.
“I believe that this factor – that people close to him think he is not in good health – reduces the risk that they will obey his order to kill enemies, as they did in the past.
“For the same reason, it is unlikely that someone will push the nuclear button with the understanding that if he is not there in three or six months, who will protect him from the Nuremberg trial?”
Iskander tactical missile system in combat position (Photo: Shutterstock / Karasev Viktor)
One of Putin’s closest allies warned NATO on Thursday that if Sweden and Finland joined the military alliance, then Russia would deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles in a European exclave.
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, said Russia would have to strengthen its ground, naval and air forces in the Baltic Sea if they become members.
Medvedev also explicitly raised the nuclear threat, saying he could no longer talk about a “nuclear-free” Baltic – where Russia has its own Kaliningrad exclave, sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania.
Russia has the largest arsenal of nuclear warheads in the world and, along with China and the United States, is one of the world’s leaders in hypersonic missile technology.
Lithuania has said that Russia’s threats are nothing new and that Moscow deployed nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad long before the war in Ukraine.
View of the landing ship BDK-58 Kaliningrad (Photo: Ministry of Defense of Russia / TASS)
Kaliningrad, the former port of Königsberg, the capital of East Prussia, is less than 1,400 km from London and Paris and 500 km from Berlin.
Russia said in 2018 that it had deployed Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad, which had been captured by the Red Army in April 1945 and ceded to the Soviet Union at a conference in Potsdam.
Iskander, known as NATO’s SS-26 Stone, is a short-range tactical ballistic missile system that can carry nuclear warheads.
Its official range is 500 km, but some Western military sources suspect it may be much larger.
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