What is the Northern Ireland Protocol and why is it back in the news?
The protocol was part of the UK’s 2019 Brexit divorce agreement with the European Union. In order to avoid the imposition of a trade and customs border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, it has placed one in the Irish Sea between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, which in practice remained part of the EU’s trade bloc. It requires inspections of certain goods entering Northern Ireland from the United Kingdom. Unionists say this undermines Northern Ireland’s position in the United Kingdom and could lead to an economically united Ireland. The issue has returned to the forefront as the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) says it will not join a new chief executive in Stormont unless Boris Johnson’s Tory government changes the protocol.
Why does this matter?
In Northern Ireland, elections have just taken place for a new Stormont meeting to form an executive branch – a decentralized government with ministers – on Thursday. The rules for sharing power require the participation of the DUP. Refusal to do so will paralyze the executive branch, creating a dead end that will destabilize Northern Ireland.
What can the UK government do about it?
Downing Street would like to unilaterally change or even drop the protocol – this would please Brexitists and unions. But it will provoke a trade war with the EU, darken economic gloom and shatter Johnson’s aging promise to “make Brexit possible”. So the prime minister’s team is expected to try to persuade the EU to soften the protocol, with a familiar combination of threats, noise and warnings. There is no guarantee of compromise. There may still be a trade war.
What can a compromise look like?
The European Commission may extend the list of products exempted from inspections in the ports of Northern Ireland and distort any role that the European Court of Justice has in the administration of the Protocol. However, EU Vice President Maros Shefcovic downplayed the prospect of big concessions. “The EU has already shown great flexibility in proposing impactful and lasting solutions, and we are ready to continue discussions. The Irish Government has supported this position.
Where does this lead to Northern Ireland?
In a state of uncertainty. With the exception of a unlikely breakthrough, Stormont’s executive branch will turn into a zombie administration this week, with civil servants and outgoing executive ministers continuing their core functions but unable to make big decisions or launch new initiatives. The executive has limited budgetary powers, mainly in Westminster, but can take steps to alleviate the cost of living and health crises in the region. If there is no executive power in six months, Northern Ireland Secretary of State Brandon Lewis must call an election.
What will happen to DUP?
If the protocol is significantly changed, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson could try to sell this to his party as a victory and direct it to a new executive, even one with Sinn Fein’s first minister, restoring a semblance of normalcy. He could dismiss any deal as unacceptable. In both cases, he may also call for new elections to put the deal in front of voters in the hope that the DUP will overtake Sinn Fein as the largest party, giving it the right to nominate a prime minister. Most people in Northern Ireland support the protocol, while most unions oppose it, with the most radical critics pushing Donaldson to a firm stand.
What does Shin Fein say?
Having just overtaken the DUP – the first time a nationalist party has won the most votes in Northern Ireland – Sinn Féin may nominate Deputy Leader Michel O’Neill as Prime Minister. Previously, she was deputy prime minister, a post with equal power but less prestige. Sinn Féin had previously toppled Stormont over disputes with the DUP, but this time he promises to get him working, which will improve his image in the Republic of Ireland, where he hopes to win power in the next election.
What about the other parties in Northern Ireland?
The Alliance, a centrist, non-aligned party and other moderates such as the Ulster Unionists and the Social Democratic and Labor parties want an executive branch formed as soon as possible, no matter what happens to the protocol. The Alliance is pushing for a change in the rules so that no country can block the formation of an administration.
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