After a potentially reversing victory to return to Toronto, the Maple Leafs now face the final and steepest hurdle in the series as they return to Tampa, looking to knock out consecutive champions and break their second-round ticket for the first time since 2004 (7:30 p.m. EST, Sportsnet & CBC).
With the series tending in a dark direction during the first period of Game 5, a huge boost in the second half of the game allowed Toronto to reverse the tides, stop the bleeding at 2-0 and complete a remarkable comeback to win the game. The Leafs Prize is the opportunity to pass the toughest test of the Amalie Arena series tonight: eliminate Lightning with their first consecutive playoff playoffs of 2019, while winning their first playoff win since defeating the Ottawa Senators in seven games. in 2003-04.
While Game 5 continued to include plenty of time for special teams, pressing the Leafs from the second period onwards meant that they finished with their best performance of the series at five to five. Two of the last three games have had over 42 minutes of five-on-five play, which is still far below the average for the regular season, but is above what we saw in the first two games of the series.
Overall, the Leafs finished with more than two xGoals at five to five, which is their best result in the series so far. A desperate Tampa team that specializes in back-to-wall reaction will need a similar (but more complete in 60 minutes) effort at five to five to complete the game on Game 6.
After winning a key goal in power play and a four-on-four assist on Tuesday, John Tavares will seek to build on momentum and turn it into a five-on-five production as the series reaches its later stages. Six Leafs players recorded more than .20 individual expected goals (all situations) in Game 5, but Tavares was not one of them. In fact, he was the only striker on the team outside of Ondrej Kase who had no attempt to strike at five on five.
Another player who made a huge four-on-four in Game 5 but will be looking for a fuller 60-minute effort tonight is Morgan Riley. Sheldon Keefe and Spencer Carbury made an interesting change in the game of power in Game 5, turning Rielly and Mark Giordano over, which moved the veteran to the first unit of Leafs for the second part of the game.
Giordano’s experience, simple but effective movement with goals and the ability to score goals give Leafs a useful element in the offensive zone, but it remains to be seen whether the coaching staff feels comfortable enough to stick with him tonight. Rielly had two blocked points in the first period, both of which led to the attack of strange people.
Beyond this possible change, the Leafs will probably look very similar to the way they started game 5. As he has done in every game so far, Keefe has used the Engvall-Kampf-Mikheyev combination a lot both in the lead and in the lag. It was the same in the last game, although this time it was more of a byproduct of trying to put the time of John Tavares and William Nilander together on a secondary score line, while the team switched to a three-line approach in pursuit of a comeback. Tonight, it seems that Nylander and Tavares will start to separate again, but we know that Keefe has many options that he will turn to situationally.
After their line lost the battle against the top trio of Leafs in the last match, Jon Cooper moved Stephen Stamkos down the line and replaced him with Brayden Point in Lightning’s top score line. Cooper is likely to return to his starting line tonight, given that he has more control over home games. Although there are only two points in the series, both in the power play, Brayden Point continued to be one of Tampa’s top drivers. The match against Matthews’ line will again be a critical factor in the game – in particular whether Matthews continues to take on 5v5, as he did on Tuesday, or if Lightning can return to the success they enjoyed at home with Cirelli-Point. Killorn faced Leafs’ top line.
Series statistics via Evolving-Hockey
- Victor Hedman leads the series in xGoals% on ice and xGoalsFor / 60 at five out of five.
- The seven best players in the series in terms of the division of attempts to hit five to five are all Tampa Bay players: Killern, Point, Heigl, Sirelli, Hedman, Colton and Chernak.
- The worst rating xGoalsAgainst / 60 in the series is Nikita Kucherov.
- Yila Lyubushkin, averaging 12:30 on a five-on-five ice time, is dead last of every player in the series at xG% and about 8% worse than the next worst defender.
- John Tavares and Anthony Sirelli are the only players in the series whose teams have not scored five to five minutes in their minutes.
- Point, Kucherov and Stamkos lead the series in xGF / 60 by virtue of the game.
- Auston Matthews has the most ShotAttempts / 60 of each player in the series.
- Corey Perry leads the series in individual xGoals / 60. Second is Ilya Mikheev.
Quotes for the day of the game
Sheldon Keefe about the mood of his team entering the elimination match:
I think the boys are fine. I think if there’s one thing we’ve learned along the way, it’s that you can’t focus too much on the fact that it’s an elimination game or something. All these things are self-evident. You know what you’re playing.
You need to focus on the things you did well in this series. You need to focus on continuing to improve in the series. Focus on your game. Just go out and play.
Keef on how the team is preparing for the most difficult challenge in the series:
Like I said, I think a lot of that is to keep the focus on our game and focus on the details. We had a meeting this morning where we showed things that we need to do better, and we showed things that we did well that led us to success in the series.
That’s where the focus should be. Knowing that you are tough against your opponent and you are on the road, these things are important.
We have been here. We played with this team in this building. We know what to expect in this regard. Indeed, we are simply focused on playing our best game in the series. We have a feeling that this will take time.
We kept working on it. We worked things out and made small adjustments along the way. Now we have to go out and play.
Keef for the announcement of the nomination for the Hart Trophy by Auston Matthews:
We talked about it a lot and with good reason – he had such a significant contribution in so many areas for our team. The other part is that it was so consistent – scoring goals is consistent at a rate higher than any other; in particular, marking five on five, which is the hardest thing to do in our sport. He is doing this with a speed that no one in the game has been able to keep up with in the last few years.
Then [there’s] the intangible assets of his game too. He plays so many minutes for us and he still plays hard and plays well in defense. With all the different things he does for us, it’s great for him to have that honor and great for Leafs.
It’s been a long time since a player was honored like that [in Toronto]. Obviously, when the news comes at this point, everyone has other things on their mind, but it’s a well-deserved recognition.
Key for his team’s power play and how the special teams influenced the series:
We need to implement and make more things happen around the network and in the network. If you look at the first period, we didn’t get anything for free or a really good look online, even though we were in the area for a long time. This in itself is a big challenge against this team, so we succeeded [overcome that].
Getting a clean look was a challenge, but at the same time we found a way to celebrate quite consistently. You get one goal per game with the power of the game. You will take it. When we get powerful games at the beginning of the games, we would like to strike a blow and see how it gains momentum for us.
I think in the first period we had [last game], staff and things like that are exaggerated a bit because of the special teams. Their powerful game beat ours 8-0. The equalizer was 6-4. When you look at it, the period doesn’t look so bad at five to five.
When a powerful game doesn’t work, it tends to draw attention to every area and you feel like your whole game isn’t there. You really need to focus on your five-on-five game and know that a powerful game is something that can build a positive boost for the team.
Keef for Morgan Rielly and Mark Giordano, who switch power-play units to Game 5:
S [Giordano’s] It is a little more inclined and programmed to direct the puck to the net. With Morgan all season, he is rather a distributor at the top. [We made the change] with this in mind.
Keefe about what Matthews and Marner need to do tonight to succeed:
I think if they play the way they played that night, it will take them far. Austin, in particular, [playing] 200 feet of ice and winning puck back is a long way.
Their game on the road here also did not go well. I think that’s a reflection of how the games went. As a team, we didn’t play very well here, so it was difficult to win good matches.
It is also difficult to obtain favorable shifts. We have been on our heels a lot in this building. This is an area where as a team we can stand up and really establish our game and continue what we did in Game 5, it will help all our players.
John Cooper on his group’s way of thinking with his back to the wall:
In times like these, I think I learned with this group that we are somehow all together. There are no special buttons that I have to press to get them. This was not a series of efforts for us. I will say it until …
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