Just six months after becoming prime minister, Sweden’s Magdalena Anderson has pushed her country to the brink of joining NATO after centuries of military neutrality.
However, the historic candidacy faced a problem few saw coming: Sweden’s role in the long-running dispute between future NATO ally Turkey and Kurdish extremists.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has called Sweden a “center of total terrorism, a nest of terrorism” and threatened to block its membership in the 30-member group unless it breaks ties with the People’s Protection Squad (YPG), a Syrian Kurdish militia; lifts the arms embargo on Turkey and extradites several dozen people accused by Ankara of terrorism.
His demands leave the left-wing government with a difficult choice. “You have Kurdish voters in Sweden, you have a lot of party activists of Kurdish origin, a lot of people who sympathize with the Kurds. This is a sensitive issue for Sweden in general and for the Social Democrats in particular. It’s very uncomfortable, “said Aaron Lund, a Middle East expert and contributor to The Century Foundation.
Anderson became prime minister last year thanks to just one vote, that of Amine Kakabaweh, a far-left Kurdish lawmaker. Kakabaweh supported her only after signing an agreement with the Social Democrats, which focuses entirely on support for the Kurds and criticism of Erdogan and his attitude towards the Kurds.
“You can’t help but look at the very strange agreement between the Swedish government and a single MP. This deal had less to do with Swedish politics than with the Kurds in Syria, “said Svante Cornell, director of the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.
Sweden was once the strongest European supporter of Turkey’s EU accession. But Erdogan’s pursuit of authoritarianism and the fight against the Islamic State jihadist group have shifted foreign policy priorities in Stockholm and elsewhere.
Western support for the YPG, the Syrian militia that helped defeat ISIL in northeastern Syria, has worsened relations between Turkey and its NATO partners since 2014.
Turkey says the YPG poses a direct threat due to its close ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has been rioting against the Turkish state since 1984 at the cost of more than 40,000 lives. The United States and the EU recognize the PKK as a terrorist organization, but say the YPG is a separate entity.
Kurdish protesters attend a demonstration against Turkey’s military action in northeastern Syria, in Stockholm, Sweden, on October 12, 2019. © Fredrik Sandberg / TT / AP
Most Turks see little daylight between the local PKK and Syrian fighters. Turkey’s most important foreign policy issue is the army’s cross-border operations against Kurdish extremists, according to an annual poll conducted by Kadir Has University. The biggest external threat is “international terrorism”, the study found.
Perceptions in Sweden are different.
Sweden’s Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist met with YPG members, while Foreign Minister Anne Linde tweeted her photo in December with officials from the Syrian Democratic Council, the political wing of the YPG’s parent organization.
A large PKK flag was flown over a well-known street in Stockholm over the weekend following an SDC meeting hosted by the Swedish Foreign Ministry.
Lund said there had been significant lobbying by Swedish officials from interest groups. “Sweden is a very small country, far from everything else. “Since the 1970s, there has been a feeling that we need to be honest,” he said. “These statements that you made to satisfy these activists may no longer seem free,” he added.
For dissidents who have made Sweden their home, the dispute is worrying. Ragip Zaracolu, a 73-year-old Nobel Peace Prize nominee, journalist and human rights activist, worries that Erdogan has “targeted” me in the NATO dispute. His name was reportedly on a list Ankara handed over to Linde last week.
Earlier, Turkey demanded Zarakolu’s extradition to face verbal accusations of terrorism, and he faces up to 15 years in prison if convicted. Swedish courts have rejected the extradition request, and the European Court of Human Rights ruled in 2020 that Turkey had violated Zarakolu’s rights to freedom and expression.
“I have little faith that I will get a fair trial [because] the Turkish judiciary is in a state of crisis … under Erdogan’s authoritarianism, “said Zarakolu, who continues to write for Turkish newspapers about Turkey’s attitude towards the Kurds and other ethnic minorities.
Cornell said he could see Sweden backing down on the YPG and the arms embargo, but not on extradition. “I definitely think this is a choice that Swedish politicians have to face. How important is the support of a group in northern Syria against the acceleration of the NATO process? This process of costs and benefits is shifting as we speak, “he added.
All 30 existing NATO members must ratify both Sweden’s and Finland’s requests to join the alliance, giving Turkey a veto. Turkish, Swedish and Finnish officials say the main problem is in Stockholm, not Helsinki, which is increasing pressure on Sweden to find compromises.
Any sign of Sweden’s retreat would irritate the left, which is already annoyed by the decision to abandon 200 years of military service in order to join NATO. “We are dependent on an authoritarian regime like Erdogan’s, which persecutes its own people, imprisons dissidents and wages war against neighboring countries,” said Nushi Dadgostar, leader of the former Communist Left Party.
It is now a good time for Turkey to push Sweden against the Kurds, Lund said. “Turkey sees an opportunity to ask for something because Sweden wants something from Turkey. “Turkey sees a chance to feel its weight,” he said. “He may be able to get concessions from Sweden, and if the United States mediates a solution, try to get concessions from them as well.
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