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Putin’s catastrophic war has revealed Russia as a third-rate power

After this beheading strategy failed, the Russian offensive quickly sank into Kyiv’s wooded hinterland. After a month of heavy casualties, the invaders retreated to the border to lick their wounds.

What they left behind, however, were corpses, mass graves and other evidence of crimes against humanity. Evidence of atrocities found first in Bucha and then in almost every liberated town or village opened the eyes of the world to the horrors that will dominate the memory of this war.

Perhaps the fiercest of all battles took place during the siege of Mariupol: an epic battle that lasted more than 80 days, culminating in a final battle at the Azovstal steel plant.

Notable in this siege was the Azov Battalion or Regiment, a unit of the Ukrainian National Guard of neo-Nazi origin and insignia. Azov plays a huge role in Russian propaganda to justify Putin’s claim that his goal is to “denazify” Ukraine.

Yet the unquestionable courage of Mariupol’s defenders, unlike the ruthlessness of the besieging Russians – who refused to allow civilians to leave or treat soldiers as prisoners of war – turned this into another propaganda victory for Ukraine.

The fate of Mariupol’s pre-war population of more than 400,000 is still unclear – hundreds have been deported to an area near North Korea – but at least 20,000 civilians have died in this once prosperous port, now in ruins. However, his name will be appreciated by Ukrainians because, having lasted so long, he has tied up Russian forces that might otherwise tip the scales in the battle for Donbass that began six weeks ago.

After damaging but failing to capture Kharkiv’s high-tech center, once Ukraine’s Silicon Valley, exhausted Russian hordes are now concentrating on capturing the remaining Donbass region.

The aim is to hold a falsified referendum in Kherson to add a third puppet “republic” to the separatist enclaves of Luhansk and Donetsk. However, the catastrophe that has befallen the occupied regions of Donbass is indescribable.

Ukrainian genocide

Speaking on Thursday, Zelensky said Donbass had been “completely destroyed – hell is there and this is no exaggeration”. The occupied territories appear to be largely depopulated. How?

What has happened in Donbass and elsewhere is mass deportations through “filtration camps” to Russia’s outermost regions, some about 5,500 miles from home. The Pentagon has confirmed the existence of these camps, where mothers are separated from their children. Ukrainians identified as “Nazis” were sent to concentration camps to be tortured, killed or used as slaves.

Earlier this month, Ukraine’s human rights leader Lyudmila Denisova estimated the number of deportees at 1.19 million, including 200,000 children, many of whom were forcibly adopted. According to leaked Kremlin documents, plans to deport 2 million Ukrainians were made before the invasion, and the process is still ongoing. Meanwhile, ethnic Russians are moving to areas liberated by Ukrainians.

The existence of more than 1,300 Russian camps and the forcible removal of more than a million civilians is so shocking that the world has hardly begun to digest the news. This means that Solzhenitsyn’s nightmare of the Gulag archipelago is back, this time against a democratic European state. There is only one word for this crime: genocide.

All this is happening under the auspices of Vladimir Putin. He alone is responsible for unleashing indescribable misfortunes on Ukrainians, whom he claims are indeed Russians. Yet such a colossal act of lawlessness could not have happened without thousands, perhaps millions, of voluntary accomplices.

What made the war, and everything that comes with it, possible is the systematic destruction of civil society in Russia. Since taking office 22 years ago, Putin has crushed dissent, silenced the independent press and lobotomized the population – while the free world has largely closed its eyes.

The soft belly of Europe

Putin had a range of temptations to woo the West: oligarchs with money to do laundry in London and New York; profitable investment opportunities in Russia; and cultural exchange in abundance, including exhibitions, ballet troupes and musicians – prominent among them are Putin’s favorites Valery Gergiev and Anna Netrebko. In 2014, the British Museum occupied part of Elgin’s marbles at the Hermitage in St. Petersburg. Despite the annexation of Crimea, everything was as usual, from athletes to architects.

Above all, Putin has offered Europe cheap energy: gas, oil and coal. The sharp rise in global hydrocarbon prices since the pandemic has made many countries even more dependent on Russia. No wonder many beneficiaries on both sides did not want to believe that the era of London and Ostpolitik, at cozy summits with vodka and caviar, is over.

Even now, after three months of carnage on the continent, the three largest nations in the European Union are still struggling to adjust to the reality of their plight. None of the leaders of France, Germany or Italy made a gesture of solidarity with their visit to Kyiv. All three carried weapons and sanctions. All three are calling for a ceasefire, not a withdrawal from Russia.

Emmanuel Macron continues to believe that direct talks with Putin will lead to a compromise acceptable to both sides. He insists that Russia should not be “humiliated”, but is accused by Zelensky of proposing to hand over Ukrainian land to Putin, an accusation he denies.

Olaf Scholz adheres to his policy of avoiding “escalation” at all costs, despite the defeats in the regional elections, which suggest that German public opinion would like him to follow the tougher line forged by his green foreign minister, Analena Berbok. Germany still pays billions for Russian gas.

Italian technocratic Prime Minister Mario Draghi would prefer a tougher line, but his coalition partners and opponents – from old Putin aides like Silvio Berlusconi to populists like Matteo Salvini – are all soft on Russia.