ANKARA, Turkey (AP) – Within two weeks, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has sparked unrest by throwing a wrench at Sweden’s and Finland’s historic bid to join NATO by attacking another Alliance member Greece and announcing plans for a new one. invasion of Syria.
Erdogan appears to be using Turkey’s role as a mediator in the war in Ukraine and its ability to veto new NATO members as an opportunity to raise various complaints and force other nations to take action against groups seen by the Turkish government as terrorists, including Kurdish fighters.
Strengthening his image as a strong man by focusing on international disputes could also resonate inside the country as Turkey prepares for general elections next year.
Here’s a look at Erdogan’s last edge and what he can hope to gain:
WHAT DOES TURKEY WANT?
Turkey, which commands NATO’s second-largest army, is pushing for long-sought demands from Sweden – and to a lesser extent Finland – to strike at entities that Ankara says are linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party or the PKK.
Threatening to block the two Scandinavian countries from joining the Western military alliance, the Turkish government has also asked them to end their alleged support for the People’s Defense Forces or YPG, a Syrian Kurdish militia.
The PKK is considered a terrorist organization in Turkey, Europe and the United States. It has been waging an armed uprising against the Turkish state since 1984, and the conflict has killed tens of thousands. Turkey says the PKK and the YPG are one and the same.
Turkey wants extradition of wanted terrorism suspects from Finland and Sweden. The two NATO candidates reject accusations that they support the PKK or other terrorist groups.
Another key demand is the lifting of restrictions on arms sales that several European countries, including Sweden and Finland, have imposed on Turkey since invading Syria in 2019 to act against the YPG.
Merve Tahiroglu, co-ordinator of Turkey’s Middle East Democracy Program, said Erdogan believes NATO needs Turkey, which gives him a position to bargain.
“They (NATO allies) want to show Russia that NATO is more united than ever and that even Erdogan’s Turkey will not be able to break that. That is how Erdogan knows he can get away with it, “Tahiroglu said.
WHY NOW THREATEN WITH A NEW OFFENSIVE IN SYRIA?
Turkey has made three major incursions into Syria since 2016, straining its relations with the United States. Washington sees Syrian Kurdish groups as key allies in the fight against Islamic State, but Turkey sees them as terrorist organizations.
Erdogan announced plans Monday for a new Turkish offensive in northern Syria to create a 30km safe zone along its southern border. The long-held goal would be to push the YPG militia out of Turkey’s borders.
The moment suggests that such an offensive could be used to gather nationalist voters, while paving the way for the momentum created by Turkey’s role as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine war to continue Ankara’s demands in NATO talks.
Michael Tanchum, a senior fellow at the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy, said the Turkish government believes its NATO allies do not fully appreciate the threat the PKK and its branches pose to Turkey.
At the same time, Turkey has close relations with both Moscow and Kyiv. Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, its position “provides Ankara with some leverage to try to address these issues of great concern to the Turkish Republic,” Tanchum said.
But another invasion of Syria amid Turkey’s opposition to Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO could destroy Erdogan’s “goodwill” since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to Tahiroglu of the Middle East Democracy Project.
“He certainly reaffirmed the idea that many NATO allies had Turkey as a problematic ally under Erdogan,” Tahiroglu said.
HOW DOES GREECE REPRESENT THIS?
Nominal NATO allies Greece and Turkey are regional rivals with long-standing differences over a range of issues, from maritime borders in the eastern Mediterranean to the future of ethnically divided Cyprus. Tensions between them erupted in 2020 over offshore energy rights.
Erdogan was outraged by comments by Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis during a recent visit to Washington. Addressing Congress, the prime minister suggested that the United States should not sell F-16s to Turkey to avoid creating a “new source of instability” on NATO’s southeastern flank.
In response, Erdogan said he would not speak to Mitsotakis again and would cancel a meeting of the Strategic Council between their two governments.
The Turkish president cited hostility to Greece in discussing his opposition to Sweden’s and Finland’s NATO bids. Erdogan said his country had made a mistake in approving Greece’s re-entry into the alliance’s military wing in 1980, and was determined not to make the same mistake with Sweden and Finland.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum this week in Davos, Switzerland, Mitsotakis said it would be “a mistake if Turkey continues to use these (NATO) negotiations to reap some benefits for its own national interests”.
WHAT ROLE DOES ELECTION POLICY PLAY?
Turkey is due to hold presidential and parliamentary elections next year by June 2023 at the latest. The invasion of Syria to oust the YPG has boosted support for Erdogan in the last election. The Turkish leader can hope to regain nationalist votes at a time when the country’s economy is in decline, with inflation at close to 70%.
Erdogan also saw his popularity grow before that, when he seemed to oppose Greece and other Western countries.
“I think his plan right now is to demonstrate at his polling station that he can arm the US and NATO allies,” Tahiroglu said. “And he is empowered to do that, to act that way, because these allies have been reassuring him since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.”
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Zeynep Bilginsoi in Istanbul and Derek Gatopoulos in Athens contributed.
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