The railroad has long been quietly preparing for what is being spearheaded as the greatest industrial battle of a generation. Now, with the weapons ready for a national strike, the RMT union must decide whether to pull the trigger.
Its national executive committee will discuss the next steps in the coming days, after 40,000 Network Rail members and 15 train companies voted overwhelmingly in favor. For now, he has officially invited more talks with companies operating trains – a slightly confusing position for some in the industry, who said RMT had skipped gunfire before wage discussions began.
However, many expect the first of what is likely to be a series of 24-hour stops to be announced at the end of June. With an estimated daily cost of £ 30 million, this will prove, as Transport Minister Grant Schaps warned, much damage to the recovery industry, but not necessarily a complete logistical crisis for the country, as some have suggested.
Senior railway officials looked horrified when Shaps said ministers were considering restricting the right to strike, a move that inevitably sparked unions. The more cautious parts of the government are quietly trying to avoid conflict: bosses are drawing up contingency plans that will not work if all railway unions join the strike.
For RMT, there is a significant difference in the otherwise unanimous vote, with Govia Thameslink Railway employees only supporting action other than a strike. The GTR contains three major transport operations, Thameslink, Great Northern and Southern. The latter was the scene of bitter and protracted strikes in 2016-17, a time when most of his clients were forced to come to London to work independently.
Office staff have already been shown to be able to work from home – a change that will significantly reduce political pressure from lawmakers in the car to settle strikes at all costs. And without continuous strikes for more than 72 hours, there is little prospect of supply disruptions or power supplies, despite terrible warnings about the critical role of rail freight.
Southern strikes remind that RMT train staff alone was not enough even then to force a complete stop
The southern strikes also remind us that the staff of the RMT train alone was not enough, even then, to impose a complete halt – or to halt completely the reforms they were fighting against.
The critical weapon for RMT in each strike this time around will be its 20,000 Network Rail members, including about 5,000 signalmen, who will be able to shut down large parts of the network. But the latest parts of the railway – such as Thameslink and long-distance major lines – use digital signage that can be operated by a handful of staff, allowing managers and non-RMT signalers to maintain limited service.
Other unions can still play a role, including the TSSA, which represents more than middle management – including emergency personnel – and will have leverage in joint action. Aslef’s drivers’ union is unlikely to take effect before the autumn – but as a dispute in Scotland shows, even the withdrawal of the weekend could have a huge impact on the driver-deficient industry.
Yet opposition threatens to escalate. There is no obvious answer to the changing travel patterns and lower revenues for the railway, which has so many fixed costs. One of the goals may be rolling stock companies, which continue to make huge profits. But rail wages and productivity will come first – and the prospect of a quiet settlement, with the kind of index-linked wage increase that usually enjoys all ranks, has receded with galloping inflation.
This puts the stakes higher for employees whose salaries have been eroded, but also for ministers who seem to be listening – despite protests – to Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who has called for pay cuts to curb inflation. , despite the cost of … a living crisis.
The bigger immediate political headache may not be so much that the railroad stops – but that the result will be closely watched by other parts of the public sector, also desperate for wage increases that could bear the pandemic frontline badge with even more justification from the railway staff.
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