Sunday, May 29, 2022, 6:55 pm – Astronomers say this will be an event for all or nothing.
While we may not see anything unusual on Monday night, there is a chance we will see hundreds, if not thousands, of meteors moving across the sky.
About 27 years ago, in 1995, astronomers observed a comet begin to decay. Although Comet 73P / Schwassman-Wachmann 3 was discovered about 65 years ago, it has been a rather inconspicuous object all this time. Even the meteor shower associated with it, the Tau Herculids, which peak at the end of May each year, produces almost no meteors. Since 1995, however, the comet has been significantly illuminated as it disintegrates into numerous fragments. This decay also threw a lot of dust and debris around the comet.
This image from NASA’s Spitzer Space Telescope shows an infrared view of the wreckage of Comet 73P / Schwassman-Wachmann 3 strung in a path of beads in its orbit. It can be seen that the larger fragments emit jets of ice, dust and gas, which are repelled by radiation pressure due to sunlight. (Credit: NASA)
Since then, the Tau Herculians have remained a rather unimpressive meteor shower. It occurs every year between the end of May and the middle of June and reaches its peak at the end of May. However, it usually produces so few meteors that it is not worth mentioning in any seasonal night sky observation manuals.
This year, however, is different.
On the night of May 30-31, 2022, astronomers believe that there is a chance that the Earth will pass through a concentrated pile of debris from 73P / Schwassman-Wachmann 3. If this chance pays off, it is likely to cause an explosion to rival large annual meteor showers. , such as the Perseids or Geminids. However, there is also the potential that we can see thousands of bright streaks in the sky while delivering a meteor storm!
The observation time depends on where you live. Researchers from the Institute of Celestial Mechanics and Calculations of Ephemeris at the Paris Observatory have shown that if an explosion occurs, it will be concentrated over the Bahá’í Peninsula in California around 10 pm PDT on May 30. Most of North America will be able to see it, except in the Arctic and the Northwest Pacific.
For Canada, this means that the eastern half of the country has the best chance of seeing an outbreak that could happen. The chances are lower the further west the observer is, due to the twilight effects.
The meteoric activity is expected to last only a few hours, reaching a peak around 1 am EDT on Tuesday – 2:30 am NDT, 2 am ADT, 12 am CDT, 23 hours CST / MDT and 22 hours PDT.
Look at the bright star Arcturus, in the southwestern sky, shortly after midnight, EDT, on the night of Monday, May 30 to Tuesday, May 31, 2022, for the ray of the potential tau burst of Hercules. Credit: Stellarium / Scott Sutherland
ON THE OTHER HAND
While we may see something really inspiring on Monday night, we shouldn’t expect too much.
“It’s going to be an event for all or nothing,” said Bill Cook of NASA’s Environmental Meteorological Service.
Meteor showers are the result of the Earth passing through streams of debris left by comets and some asteroids as they orbit the Sun. The key word in all this for this story is behind. Small meteoroids in a stream of debris are almost always ejected by a comet or asteroid to follow their parent object.
In the event of this potential eruption of the Tau Herculids, it all depends on the debris from 73P / Schwassman-Wachmann 3, which was ejected with enough force during the disintegration to launch it in front of the comet.
The reason for this is due to the time and relative positions of the Earth, the comet’s orbit and the flow of debris, as well as the main fragments of the comet.
Usually at this time of year we see almost nothing of the very diffuse flow of comet debris. However, after the comet crashed, there was much more dust and debris near the other fragments. If we manage to encounter some of these more concentrated debris, it will lead to the explosion we are looking for. However, the weather is out.
This orbital diagram shows the relative positions of the inner planets, the primary fragment of comet 73P / Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-C and the comet’s orbit on 31 May 2022 at 5 UTC. Credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech / Scott Sutherland
At the moment, these larger fragments of the comet are nowhere near us. They have to go through our current location in space over the next few months. Until then, however, the Earth will be millions of kilometers from where we are now, as the planet continues to orbit the Sun. So for this explosion to happen, we need some of the debris fired so far away from the fragments that they are on our way Monday night.
According to NASA, observations with the Spitzer Space Telescope show that some of the debris was ejected with enough force that we have to collide with it.
“This is one of the reasons astronomers are excited,” Lee Mohon wrote on NASA’s Watch the Skies blog.
PROMISING SIGNS
There is still no indication as to whether the outbreak is actually happening, and we have certainly been disappointed with previous predictions of an outbreak. However, we see some promising signs.
The Spanish meteor network managed to capture a fireball from Tau Herculid on Friday night.
GREEN GROUND SOUND # SPMN270522H! Sign up now for # Aragón by Antonio Lassala @ AntonioLG1 at 23h57m46s TUC. Ojalá sea the announcement of many more fragments of comet # 73P # SW3 at night. Prepared for the campaign? 🤩 pic.twitter.com/cm0gPwbCvA
¡PRIMER BÓLIDO TAU HERCÚLIDA Red de Investigación Bólidos y Meteoritos (SPMN) on Twitter: “¡PRIMER BÓLIDO TAU HERCÚLIDA # SPMN270522H! porn on Aragón, on a fragment from Aragón by Tuel Lasala. of comet # 73P # SW3 in the night before. ¿Preparations for the campaign? 🤩 pic.twitter.com/cm0gPwbCvA / Twitter “! Registrar ayer viernes sobre Red de Investigación Bólidos y Meteoritos (SPMN) в Twitter: “¡PRIMER BÓLIDO TAU HERCÚLIDA # SPMN270522H! pr pic.twitter.com/cm0gPwbCvA / Twitter “by Antonio Lasala Red de Investigación Bólidos y Meteoritos (SPMN) on Twitter:” Twitter: “! Registered ayer viernes sobre # Aragon by Antonio Lasala @ AntonioLG1 at 23h57m46s TUC. Ojalá sea the announcement of many more fragments of comet # 73P # SW3 at night. ¿Preparados añaña ¿cm ¿Preparados´twi. / Twitter “23 hours 57 minutes 46 minutes ago TUC. Ojalá sea el anuncio de manyos mâ fragmentos del cometa Red de Investigación Bólidos y Meteoritos (SPMN) v Twitter:” ¡PRIMER BÓLIDO TAU HERCÚLIDA # SPMN270522H! Register at Antonio’s # Araglals2agláton. announced many more fragments of comet # 73P # SW3 in the vicinity. Prepared for the campaign? 🤩 pic.twitter.com/cm0gPwbCvA / Twitter “Red de Bélidos and Meteorite Investment Plan) МЕР в Twitter (Twitter:” PRI BOLIDAS) HERCÚLIDA # SPMN270522H! Registered ayer viernes sobre # Aragon by Antonio Lasala @ AntonioLG1 at 23h57m46s TUC. Ojalá sea el anuncio de manyos más fragments del cometa # 73P # SW3. Photo of the photo for the camp. com / cm0gPwbCvA / Twitter “in the first steps. ¿Preparations for the campaign? 🤩Belidos and Meteorites Investment (SPMN) on Twitter: ¡¡EXAMPLE BÓLIDO TAU HERCÚLIDA # SPMN270522H! Registered ayer viernes sobre # Aragón por Antonio Lasala @ AntonioLG1 a sem a las463h a seao 263 # SW3 en las próximas noches. Prepared for the campaign? 🤩 pic.twitter.com/cm0gPwbCvA / Twitter “Red de Investigación Bólidos y Meteoritos (SPMN) on Twitter:” ¡PRIMER BÓLIDO TAULIDA # BÓLIDO TAU7 HERISA2PM Aragon by Antonio Lassala @ AntonioLG46 at 2357L461 at 23. Ojala sea is the announcement of many more fragments of comet # 73P # SW3 at night. Prepared for the campaign? 🤗 / C0gPvb pic.
– Red de Bélidos and Meteorites Investment (SPMN) (@RedSpmn) Boliids and Meteorites Investment (SPMN) on Twitter: . Ojalá sea the announcement of many more fragments of comet # 73P # SW3 at night. Prepared for the campaign? 🤩 pic.twitter.com/cm0gPwbCvA / Twitter ”
In addition, the Global Meteor Network discovered its first Tau Herculids.
The first Tau Herculids were discovered last night by #globalmeteornetwork. The geocentric radiant is RA = 203.2 °, Dec = 17.7 degrees based on 17 orbits. It seems that the activity is just beginning – it was first discovered on May 28, 19 hours UT with ZHR ~ 0.3 and does not decrease. pic.twitter.com/MoU8CXVRIf
The first Tau Herculids were discovered last night by Denis Vida on Twitter: “The first Tau Herculids were discovered last night by #globalmeteornetwork. The geocentric radiant was RA = 203.2 °, Dec = 17.7 degrees based on 17 orbits. It seems that the activity is just beginning – it was first discovered on May 28, 19 hours UT with ZHR ~ 0.3 and does not fall. pic.twitter.com/MoU8CXVRIf / Twitter “. The geocentric radiant is RA = 203.2 °, Dec = 17.7 degrees based on 17 orbits. The activity seems to be only …
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