Again, the world’s poor are the ones at risk of collateral damage. As the war rages in Ukraine, the most needy people in the Middle East, Central Asia and much of Africa will be caught in the crossfire as food prices escalate and their availability declines.
In 2021, nearly 700 million people, or 9 percent of the world’s population – nearly two-thirds of them in sub-Saharan Africa – lived on less than $ 1.90 a day, according to the World Bank’s definition of extreme poverty. Any significant rise in food prices could send millions more back into that category.
A report by Standard & Poor’s predicts that the food crisis will continue until 2024 and probably beyond. He warns that this could affect social stability, economic growth and sovereign ratings. The International Rescue Committee has warned the world of an impending “aftermath of famine”, with another 47 million people – mostly in the Horn of Africa, the Sahel, Afghanistan and Yemen – facing a severe famine.
Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the two countries, individually or as a couple, were among the top three exporters of wheat, corn, rapeseed, sunflower seeds and sunflower oil. Together, they account for 12% of all dietary calories traded. Russia is the largest producer of fertilizers. Rising energy costs affect everything.
In Ghana, inflation is pushing 25 percent, eroding purchasing power. In Nigeria, the central bank surprised markets by raising interest rates by 150 basis points. This week, Kenya raised interest rates for the first time in almost seven years, citing a supply chain disruption and rising commodity prices.
It doesn’t take a particularly paranoid leader to sense the challenges ahead. Many remember the origins of the Arab Spring, which began, at least symbolically, in 2010 with the self-immolation of a Tunisian vegetable trader. Rising food prices in 2007 and 2008 sparked riots around the world. Sudanese protests, which swept away longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019, were sparked by inaccessible daily bread.
Leaders feel the urgency. This week, Maki Sol, the president of Senegal and president of the African Union, announced that he was traveling to Moscow. It is assumed that there he will inform Vladimir Putin about the consequences of the Russian blockade of the Black Sea port of Odessa, which prevents 20 million tons of wheat from leaving Ukraine. Good luck with that.
Putin’s invasion, not the resulting sanctions, is the main reason for this misery. However, the West must take seriously Sal’s complaint that sanctions against Russian banks make it difficult, if not impossible, to buy grain and fertilizer from Russia. An EU official acknowledged that there was a “bug” in the sanctions regime. It has to be fixed.
In the long run, many countries – especially in Africa, where urban populations are growing the fastest – need to think more about food security. The 2003 Maputo Declaration committed African heads of state to allocate at least 10% of their budgets to agriculture. Few have come close.
Instead of making serious efforts to increase domestic yields, too many governments are trying to calm the troubled urban population by importing food. Africa is the fastest growing consumer of wheat, although outside several countries, including Kenya and South Africa, little is grown on the continent.
Locally grown crops need more attention. The widespread use of teff, an ancient Ethiopian grain, in the Horn of Africa is a good example. Other crops that can be consumed more widely include cassava, grown in West and Central Africa, from which bread can be made. Governments must also combat soil erosion and reconsider genetically modified crops.
In addition to food, too many countries are dependent on fertilizer imports. In Africa, Morocco is one of the few major producers. Countries with large gas reserves, including Mozambique, Tanzania, Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal and Mauritania, need to develop a domestic fertilizer industry as a priority.
In Nigeria, businessman Aliko Dangote has shown that this is possible. This year, he opened a fertilizer plant just outside Lagos with a capacity to produce 3 million tonnes of urea a year, making it one of the largest in the world. He told CNN that his fertilizer was being shipped to the United States, Brazil, Mexico and India, earning valuable foreign exchange. But Dangote fertilizer should also be the basis for the internal boost for higher yields.
Governments have a right to worry about their hungry urban population. The solution is to pay more attention to their farmers.
david.pilling@ft.com
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