“Finally! The PGA Tour is back in Canada! ”- The rock, if he was to join the RBC Canadian Open this week.
That’s right, after the last two editions of this annual tournament were canceled due to COVID-19 and related travel restrictions, the PGA is making its long-awaited return north of the border.
The defending champion is 2019 winner Rory McIlroy, who leads a field of over 150 golfers.
Of course, there will be several notable absences, including 2018 Canadian Open winner Dustin Johnson.
The former world number one and two-time big winner resigned from the PGA Tour on Tuesday to participate in the LIV Golf Invitational, part of a new and controversial golf series funded by the Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund.
Other notable PGA and European Tour stars joining Johnson include Louis Osthuusen, Kevin Na, Thaler Guch, Charles Schwarzell, Sergio Garcia, Lee Westwood, Ian Poulter and Phil Mickelson. Previous big winners Bryson Deschamps and Patrick Reed are also expected to compete in LIV Golf events.
Reed was originally scheduled to play in the 2022 Canadian Open, and his style, at least on paper, would fit in well with this year’s St. George’s Golf and Country Club in Etobico, Ont.
The last time the Canadian Open was held in St. George’s was in 2010 when Sweden’s Carl Peterson won, but the track designed by Stanley Thompson underwent a facelift after the tournament.
The №3 course in Canada, according to Golf Digest, plays as a par 70 at just over 7,000 yards. It includes several long par-3s, several short par-5s with greens that can be split in two for the long bombers, and club superintendent Ian McQueen told PGAtour.com that the rough is “thicker than the standard event of the Tour “.
There are many tree-lined fairways, picturesque waves, and small green areas bordered by a set of bunkers that can punish a reckless approach, especially when potholes move over the weekend.
Overall, this course should favor golfers who show accuracy from the tee and their irons, plus the ability to get out of trouble when their ball makes a trip to the beach.
With that in mind, let’s look at the odds and see where the value is.
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FAVORITES
This is a huge field in terms of the total number of golfers, although the odds are relatively high. In addition to the LIV golfers mentioned above, stars such as Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland and Will Zalatoris are focused on preparing for the US Open next week and have not made the trip to Ontario.
The three golfers with the lowest odds are the current number 1 in the world Scotty Scheffler (+850), PGA 2022 champion Justin Thomas (+900) and the hot McIlroy (+900).
Scheffler already has four wins this year and was second in the Charles Schwab Challenge two weeks ago. He has to be a contender here, as he is in most weeks.
McIlroy tends to play well on the smaller greens, so between his four top 10 and six top 20 rankings in eight tournaments in 2022, he will have a chance to become the first consecutive Canadian Open champion after Jonathan Vegas won in Glen Abbey in 2016 and 2017
The fact that Thomas is one of the best players outside of this and from the sand, gives him a huge leg in St. George’s. I will personally take JT to finish with the low score of this best trio, as its strengths are in line with this type of course. Thomas is also excellent in long par 4, of which this course has several, so if I were the bookmaker, he would be the chosen chalk.
Not to be overlooked at this highest level is Sam Burns, who enjoys the victory of Charles Schwab. Cam Smith is also a popular game this week, but he tends to fight bunkers and it could cost him a few punches this weekend.
If you want to avoid the toughest choices, but think the winner will come out of this highest level, then Matt Fitzpatrick (+1600) or Shane Lowry (+1800) may be your best options. Thomas, Fitzpatrick and Lowry can boast of sand-saving rates in the top 10, and up and down bunkers are likely to be a factor in victory.
Lowry is as stable as it can be this year, with only one finish outside the top 30 and no missed cuts. Fitzpatrick is a little more striking. In 2022, Matti Fitz either finished in the top 18 or completely missed the cut.
CONTENTS WITH VALUE AND DEBT
As you can see, there is a sharp decline after passing the leading contenders.
Tyrrell Hatton (+2800) is a seductive game from this group with its fruitful play statistics and scrambling ability, but there are options a little further down the board if you’re looking for potential long-awaited contenders.
Sahith Theegala (+6000) is quietly shooting below par on four of his last five outings and will try to drive momentum from his T5 finish last weekend at the Memorial. Theegala odds for the top 20 are the tempting +210.
Brendan Todd (+7000) doesn’t bombard him, but he sticks to the fairway better than most. It is better than the greens’ average, ranks fifth in the number of shots scored and is more effective around the greens than in the approach. Tod has a +240 odds to rank in the top 20.
CANADIANS IN FLIGHT AND BETS
This is the group that wants to become the first Kanak to win the Canadian Open since Pat Fletcher did it back in 1954. The next closest was Mike Weir, who in 2004 lost in the playoffs to Vijay Singh.
Corey Connors (+2000) was the best Canadian on the Tour and his chances this weekend reflect that. He is familiar with the course and has a solid season. If the pressure to play at home does not affect him and Connors’ father does not disappoint him, there is no reason for him not to compete on Sunday.
Adam Hadwin finished 26th or better in seven of his last 11 PGA trips since February, and Mackenzie Hughes and Nick Taylor finished in the top 15 at Wells Fargo in May.
Adam Swenson quietly made three consecutive cuts, although his placement and lack of distance from them may hold him back.
Svensson’s top 30 has a decent value at +210. Speaking of props bets, here are a few that I’m considering putting on my card in case you want to follow or fade …
Unconditional winner and all / named contenders: Matt Fitzpatrick (+1600), Shane Lowry (+1800), Corey Connors (+2000), Tyrell Hatton (+2800)
Top 10 contenders with value: Corey Connors (+200), Tony Finau (+225), Tyrell Hatton (+260), Adam Hadwin (+320), Brendan Todd (+550)
Top 20 contenders with value: Sahith Theegala (+210), Justin Rose (+210), Brendon Todd (+240)
(All betting odds listed above via Bet365 from Wednesday afternoon)
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