The Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad is proving to be the next point of friction between Russia and NATO as tensions escalate over EU sanctions. Housed in the former Prussian city of Königsberg and annexed by the Soviets in 1945, the area is a relic of the Cold War, sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland. The logic of the sanctions regime is that EU goods must be stopped from reaching Kaliningrad, but because it is cut off from the rest of Russia, which is effectively a blockade. Lithuania has complied with the rules, but is now threatened by Russia with warnings of “serious” consequences after blocking the rail transfer of some goods.
If the Russians carry out this threat, the consequences would indeed be serious, as Lithuania is a member of NATO. Any armed action against the country will be met with a reply under Article 5 under the agreement that an attack on one member is an attack on all. The war, which has turned into a proxy confrontation between the West and Russia, will become a real one. Kaliningrad is especially important for Russia because it is the seat of its Baltic Fleet and its dependence on rail transit through Lithuania has always been a potential hotbed. The ban covers about 50% of the goods that Kaliningrad imports and includes coal, metals, construction materials and modern technologies.
The Secretary of the Security Council of Russia warned that if the restrictions are not removed, “appropriate measures” will be taken and “will have a serious negative impact on the population of Lithuania.” This sounds like praise, but it cannot be dismissed lightly. NATO must be prepared for a serious escalation of the crisis.
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