- CIA chief Bill Burns said China could learn lessons from Russia’s failures in Ukraine.
- He said the war was unlikely to shake China’s determination to invade Taiwan, but it affected “how and when.”
- Burns said China probably already knows that “overwhelming force” is needed for a “decisive” victory.
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Director of the Central Intelligence Agency William Burns said on Wednesday that Russia’s struggles in Ukraine are likely to influence “how and when” China decides to invade Taiwan.
Speaking to NBC at the Aspen Security Forum, Burns said the Chinese may have learned vital lessons from the war.
He speculated that the Chinese were likely left “restless” by the poor performance of Russian troops and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “strategic failure” in Ukraine.
Despite these concerns, Burns warned that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s determination to “assert China’s control” over Taiwan should not be underestimated.
“I think the Chinese leadership is trying to learn the lessons of the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” he said. “I think our sense is that it’s probably less about whether the Chinese leadership might choose a few years down the road to use force to control Taiwan, and how and when they will.”
Burns added that China likely saw that “overwhelming force” would be needed to ensure “swift, decisive victories” in any invasion attempt. He compared this to Russia’s protracted conflict in Ukraine, which he said was “not a sustainable political end”.
With these factors in mind, Burns said the Chinese leadership could seek to “build up enormous power” and “fortify” its economy against possible international sanctions.
As for Xi’s immediate priorities, Burns said he is likely focused on cementing his power during the upcoming Communist Party Congress and keeping China’s economy afloat. However, he added that the chances of an invasion of Taiwan would be “greater” in the second half of the 2020s.
The Chinese government has declared Taiwan a “renegade province” that is part of its territory, while Taiwanese view the island as an independently governed, self-governing country with its own army.
Political figures – including former President Donald Trump – have speculated that China is likely to attempt a military attack on Taiwan, especially after Putin invaded Ukraine in February. The Taiwanese are currently trying to strengthen their defenses in preparation for a potential Chinese invasion through urban warfare training.
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