It’s been two decades since George W. Bush coined the phrase “axis of evil” to describe the rogue states that threatened the well-being of the West. And judging by this week’s Russian-Iranian summit, an equally deadly alliance is forming between two countries determined to undermine Western values.
The White House claims that President Vladimir Putin was forced to embrace the ayatollahs because he found himself completely isolated on the global stage after the invasion of Ukraine. The countries that have so far remained loyal to Moscow – North Korea, Eritrea, Belarus and Syria – can hardly be said to uphold the principles of democratic governance.
But while Mr. Putin’s courting of Iran is undoubtedly a consequence of Moscow’s diplomatic isolation, this week’s summit is of far greater significance than that.
Closer relations between Russia and Iran must be seen in the context of a broader geopolitical realignment taking place in world affairs—one that directly pits the liberal values of Western democracy against the tyrannical instincts of despotic autocrats.
In what amounts to the formation of a new “unholy alliance”, the deepening relationship between Russia and Iran gives Mr Putin the confidence to believe he can avoid the worst effects of Western sanctions and continue his aggressive recovery policy of the Russian Empire to its former glory.
The new spirit of cooperation between Moscow and Tehran, which was reflected in the warm welcome Mr Putin received from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is certainly a change from the Iranian regime’s long-standing hostility towards Russia.
I vividly remember visiting Tehran in the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq war, where the hotel had three doormats at the entrance depicting the flags of the US, Great Britain and the Soviet Union. Guests were invited to wipe their feet in them as a gesture of contempt.
Today, Iran sees itself locked in the same existential struggle for survival against the West as the Russians, to the extent that the Iranian leadership is willing to set aside its usual disdain for non-Islamic regimes in a rush to welcome Moscow’s embrace.
Iran’s desire to engage with the Russian infidel was evident in Mr Khamenei’s comments after meeting Mr Putin. He stated: “If you had not taken the initiative, the other side would have started the war on their own initiative. If the road is open to NATO, it knows no borders, and if it was not stopped in Ukraine, some time later the same war will start under the pretext of Crimea.
Iran’s paranoid attitude is the same as Mr. Putin’s, which is why the newly created Russia-Iran pact could prove to be a powerful threat to the Western alliance.
This was, after all, the week a senior aide to Mr. Khamenei boasted that Iran already had the ability to build an atomic bomb. It’s a claim that completely undermines the Biden administration’s concern to negotiate a new nuclear deal with Tehran that limits Iran’s efforts to acquire nuclear weapons. Kamal Harazi, Iran’s former foreign minister, said Iran is technically capable of making a nuclear bomb but has not yet decided whether to build one.
As a nation that boasts the world’s largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, the prospect of Moscow helping Tehran fulfill its long-held nuclear ambitions is a truly troubling prospect.
Russia has already played a key role in thwarting the Biden administration’s efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal, dragging out the process to the point that most diplomats involved in the Vienna talks now believe there is little chance of securing a new deal.
Iran’s response has been to help Russia evade sanctions by using the complex financial structures it has created to defy the West to allow Russia to export its oil to international markets via a “ghost armada” of oil tankers that shut down their GPS systems the moment they go out to sea.
Knowing that he has the active support of rogue regimes like Iran will no doubt encourage Mr. Putin to believe that despite the military setbacks he is suffering in Ukraine, he can still make things difficult for his Western adversaries.
It is unlikely, for example, that Mr Putin would be so inclined to cut off gas supplies to Europe – a threat he made immediately after returning from Tehran – unless he was confident he could make up for the revenue shortfall by using the smuggling of oil from Iran network.
Such is the case with Mr. Putin’s insistence on holding the world to ransom over the crucial issue of Ukraine’s grain exports.
Significant parts of the world face the prospect of starvation this winter unless Putin backs down. But that is unlikely as long as he can count on the support of his newfound friends in Tehran.
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