It’s been a few days since the Flames and Panthers rocked the hockey world with a blockbuster deal. It’s not often that superstars move around the NHL, and in this case, two changed teams.
When it became clear that Matthew Tkachuk was unwilling to sign long-term in Calgary, management jumped at the opportunity to move him to maximize returns. With that opinion known, it wouldn’t be too surprising if they lost leverage and failed to maximize the return to heights of a player of this caliber. It’s not easy to win a deal as a team that moves the best skater in the entire deal. But there were teams with interest and offers — but clearly the Panthers were the most enticing.
After first losing Johnny Gaudreau to free agency and Tkachuk via trade, the Flames return Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar, along with a first-rounder and prospect (Cole Schwindt). The Panthers, on the other hand, get the best player in all of this and extend him for eight years, averaging $9.5 million per year. So now that the dust has settled a bit and we’ve all had a second to digest the deal and hear what all the players (and managers) involved had to say, let’s break it down.
The biggest piece of this deal is obviously Tkachuk, who is coming off a career high 104 points. With 42 goals on the year – also a career high – his shooting is a key aspect of his offense. Tkachuk has really smooth hands and can make some really stellar plays, even in tight spaces. He can drive to quality areas of the ice and focuses most of his at-bats in the home plate zone, even at 5-on-5 when there is less time and space there. Plus, he can play a net-front role, which has contributed to him collecting such a high percentage of shots in the interior slot. The winger is among the best at creating offense off the cycle thanks to his ability to generate scoring chances.
An underrated aspect of his game is his ability to set up his teammates as well. Tkachuk is more of a dual threat than he’s given credit for. He sends his teammates a lot of passes into the offensive zone and can move the puck right into the quality areas of the ice.
Tkachuk is also responsible in his own zone, which upgrades the wing spot for Florida. If he ends up playing with Alexander Barkov, that’s two elite two-way players on one line. Or he could create a one-two punch with the duo split between the top-6, whether he’s centered by Sam Bennett, Sam Reinhart or even Anton Lundell for lineup balance.
But there is a ripple effect from this trade that isn’t directly related to Tkachuk. Losing Weegar only weakens the Panthers’ already questionable team defense, putting more pressure on the starting goaltender, who hasn’t always played up to expectations.
On the other side of it is Calgary. With Gaudreau gone, it might make all the sense for them to take a step back and quickly retool to extend their window. Still, the Flames lost their most valuable player. The Tkachuk situation has put them in a position to lose both of their superstar forwards.
Huberdeau adds a right back. He’s less like a Tkachuk replacement and more like Gaudreau, thanks to his puck movement — though there’s a bit of a gap and a lot of it is visible below the surface.
Despite leading the league in assists (both raw total and percentage), Huberdeau did not win the “best passer” title in 2021-22 — that was reserved for Gaudreau. The former Panthers winger didn’t rank as high when it came to primary shot assists in all situations or passes that directly preceded shots, and it also showed in the record with a lower primary assist percentage.
*View from April 20, 2022
Plus, Huberdeau’s 5-on-5 impact wasn’t as strong last season. That doesn’t change the fact that the Flames added a player who can move the puck better than most in the league. The wing can create shooting lanes for his teammates with his distribution; he makes a high number of passes, makes his own lanes to get the puck in the slot, and completes his pass attempts at a high clip. Plus, Huberdeau has an effective shot when he chooses to use it — but not to the point where he can replace Gaudreau, who generates the second-best 5-on-5 scoring chance ratio out of the contest. Nor does he carry the puck as much as the former Flame. However, his passing could help keep Elias Lindholm (if reunited) near the top of the off-the-cycle shot attempts charts if he can get him the puck as often as his former teammate. And Bennett, with whom Huberdeau has often been linked, created plenty of scoring chances off the shot in Florida thanks to help from his teammate’s setup, so it’s possible the Flames will find a way to keep those shots.
What helps the addition of Calgary is that they are a much better defensive team and this structure should support Huberdeau more than Florida’s riskier style of play. Huberdeau does have some defensive struggles due to his focus entirely on offense; but within that structure it shouldn’t stand out that much.
Speaking of defense, the Flames addressed that with this deal as well as Weegar. He has returned well in his own zone for quite a few seasons, but has really gained an appreciation for it in recent years. Recent biases may say otherwise after some memorable mistakes in the playoffs, but they are only a small slice of his NHL career. And the time in Calgary could boost his backend efforts even more — even if he doesn’t have Aaron Ekblad on his side for support.
Weegar’s defensive efforts begin before opponents can even enter the offensive zone; at 5-on-5, he can be counted on to deny entry, whether he’s stepping up in the neutral zone or closing the gap back in his own end to limit scoring chances. The defender does everything in his power to block passing lanes and knock opponents off the puck – whether with a stick or a shot to change possession. Plus, he can help get the puck out of his own side with control.
The question is appropriate. The Flames already had a pretty solid top four defense without Weegar in the mix. Technically their top 5 is even better. But who moves on to the third pair? Or is a defenseman moving to make room for Weegar in the top-4, perhaps to bring back a forward to address the loss of his other top-6 forward? This probably only happens if there is a guarantee that it will stay beyond the season.
That’s the risky part of it all. Huberdeau and Weegar just entered the final year of their contracts. And that puts Calgary back in a situation where they just had key pending unrestricted free agents. But the Flames have options on how to proceed depending on their priorities for the upcoming season. And in the meantime, they just added two very strong players to their roster who should be in position to succeed with the team’s defensive structure.
So neither team comes out of the trade as a loser. There is a downside from both perspectives, but quite a plus thanks to the caliber of players each team just added.
Data via Sportlogiq
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